I Actually Read the IPCC Report. Here’s What It Says

Necessary background

• The IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is the part of the UN that’s responsible for compiling scientific knowledge about climate change and informing policymakers and the public.

• They’ve been around since 1988, but have only published 6 reports. The most recent report (Sixth Assessment Report, or AR6) set off alarm bells around the world.

We’ve all heard the IPCC report mentioned a lot since it was published in August, 2021. But aside from a few references, it's hard to find a clear, simplified summary of the report. So, finally, I had to just go ahead and read it.

It was not easy. Very sciency. Not a lot of pictures.

The report came out just before the UN’s COP26 conference in Glasgow, where representatives from the world's nations gathered to find solutions to climate change. The shocking findings in the report galvanized the crowds of protesters calling for drastic changes. However, some of the more pro-fossil-fuel representatives remained un-galvanized and they managed to de-galvanize the entire Glasgow Climate Pact, despite the dire warnings from the report.

Ok, enough intro. You’re busy, otherwise you probably would have read the report yourself. So let’s skip the long winded introduction and jump right into the non-sciency summary with lots of fun pictures:

Here are the key take-aways:

• Global warming is for SURE caused by humans. Mostly from burning fossil fuels. And so far, humans have caused about 1°C of warming, but global warming is accelerating due to our increased emissions and natural feedback loops.

• Global warming is definitely causing worse storms, droughts, floods, famine, etc.

So far, these probably don’t seem like flash-of-lightning revelations, but the difference is that now our scientists can say these with a high degree of confidence, due to improvements in technology. Our climate modeling technology has gotten good enough to clearly see the direct relationship between our emissions and extreme weather events.

• If we can immediately halt emissions now, we can stay at 1°C of warming. But that’s not possible, not with the political inertia we have. If we take drastic action immediately, we can probably keep global warming under 1.5°C. The report estimates that 1.5°C is the best we can manage. And if we take some action, but not enough, we can possibly stabilize the climate at 2°C.

• However, if we do nothing, and continue emitting greenhouse gases as usual, we will likely see global warming up to 4.4 - 5.7°C by 2100.

The report uses 2100 as a benchmark, to determine what will (or should) happen this century. Keep in mind, 2100 is within many of our lifetimes.

• The report takes a lot of time to compare the world at 1.5°C vs 2°C of warming. They discuss in great detail the different worlds we will live in, from increases in sea level rise, heatwave frequency, exacerbated water shortages, to the costs of adapting to a world at 1.5°C or 2°C. The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C may seem small, but on a planetary scale the world will be much worse. At 2°C, we will cause so much more human suffering and we will waste much more money cleaning up incessant problems and trying to adapt our civilization to a new, more difficult normal.

• There are no serious contenders for technological solutions. We will not invent our way out of this problem anytime soon. Which means we just need to bite the bullet and decarbonize our economy as soon as possible.

• Even if we do everything right, we will likely exceed our carbon budget and overshoot our goal of 1.5°C around 2050, maybe to 1.6°C. But if our economy is already rapidly decarbonizing by then, we can use carbon removal to draw down the amount of CO₂ in our atmosphere and stabilize it at 1.5°C by 2100. Carbon removal will have to come from both nature-based solutions (like tree-planting, habitat restoration and reforestation) and carbon capture and sequestration technology. The severity of that overshoot will determine what measures we will need to take to get back under 1.5°C.

• If we reduce the amount of CO₂ in our atmosphere, we may be able to reverse some effects of global warming, like frequency of heatwaves, storm intensity, wildfires frequency, etc. However some effects like sea level rise and species extinction will be irreversible. So, the sooner we stop, the better.

It’s important to remember that the fossil fuel industry has been able to get friendly representatives on to the IPCC panel, and that has PROBABLY (a.k.a. definitely) weakened the reports. Which is likely why the IPCC reports have been notoriously conservative in the past. They have consistently underestimated the strength and speed of global warming.

Which is kinda freaking terrifying, because this report is already stark enough.

We are SO beyond reusable straws and meatless Mondays. We need our leaders to create drastic new policies that will immediately end fossil fuel subsidies, regulate emissions, and create thousands of jobs to mobilize our economy against the climate crisis.

Between the 1800’s and today, we’ve released enough greenhouse gases into our atmosphere to increase the global average temperature by 1°C, and we can already see devastating effects. Look at the news and you’ll see fires, floods, heatwaves, intense storms, droughts, etc. Clearly, 1.5°C will be worse, but hopefully it will be manageable. But what the **** would 5.7°C look like? Can you even imagine?